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One Trader Thinks Recent 10% Rally of Bitcoin Could Lead to Something Much Greater: a Full-Fledged Recovery

The Bitcoin price today chartered into positive territory after weeks of bearish action near $3,400. It rose close to 10% while clearing through a stubborn resistance area of $3,480-3,500.

A sudden spike is as incredible as it is scary. There are questions about its origins. Is it natural for an asset to wake from a bearish slumber and rise 10%? Now if that has happened, how severe would the next bearish correction be? And most importantly, how far BTC can extend its gains as it trends higher in its overbought territory?

A celebrated cryptocurrency analyst attempted to answer with his latest theory.

Adam-and-Eve Meets Bitcoin

GalaxyBTC, a Twitter-based cryptocurrency analyst with close to 47.8k followers, pitted the current bitcoin price action against a widely-used technical indicator called Adam-and-Eve. The page found that that BTC was following the technical indicator pattern almost too correctly, which means the price could go even higher from where it is right now.

Adam and Eve pattern in Bitcoin Charts | Source: GalaxyBTC Twitter Account

Adam-and-Eve, technically, is a double-bottom scenario, in which the price first forms a narrow, pointed V-shaped bottom called Adam. After that, the price corrects higher, falls again to retest the said Adam’s valley bottom. But this time, the new bottom formation is more rounded and broader, which is called Eve. The chart shared by GalaxyBTC shows that the bitcoin price is forming the same Adam-and-Eve price formation. It would be confirmed once the price closes above the peak between two valleys.

Per GalaxyBTC, the Adam valley’s high lies somewhere near $4,390. If BTC confirms a breakout action above the said level, then the price could be aiming at a full-fledged recovery towards – to begin with – $6,000.

Could Bitcoin Reclaim $6,000?

Reclaiming a level that had held bears for far too long in 2018 would signal a robust long-term sentiment for Bitcoin. Adam-and-Even somewhat predicts something that every bitcoin enthusiast wants to be true. However, speaking realistically, the digital currency has enough barries to break before it even thinks about a “full-fledged recovery.”

According to Eric Theis, the current uptrend is a part of “deja-vu” descending channel formations over the recent months. In English, what he means is that bitcoin could fall even lower.

The chart above indicates that bitcoin is inside a falling wedge pattern. It means the asset would undergo a breakout action in the near-term, only to consolidate sideways after that. Then, it would fall again while repeating the earlier price actions.

Meanwhile, the bitcoin market appears more bullish when it comes to fundamentals. Not to mention that the latest rally developed right after Robert J. Jackson Jr., a commissioner at the Securities and Exchange Commission, said that they would approve a bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the future.

According to Gabor Gurbacs, the director of digital assets strategy at VanEck, a regulated Bitcoin ETF would attract at least a billion dollars to the digital currency space. At the same time, the launch of Bakkt, an ICE-backed bitcoin futures platform, could attract more institutional investors to space.

$6,000 looks like an easy target to achieve, therefore.

But then, who knows.

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Bitcoin Price Weekly Analysis: BTC Primed To Test $5,000

Key Points

  • Bitcoin price gained pace recently and broke the $3,580 and $3,780 resistances against the US Dollar.
  • There is a major symmetrical triangle forming with resistance at $4,080 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair is likely to break the $4,080 and $4,150 resistance levels to rally towards $4,500 or $5,000.

Bitcoin price is placed in an uptrend above $3,580 against the US Dollar. BTC/USD is likely to extend the current bullish wave towards $4,500 or $5,000.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

This past week, bitcoin price started a solid upward move above the $3,200 resistance against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair surged above the $3,580 and $3,780 resistance levels. There was even a close above the $3,780 barrier and the 100 simple moving average (4-hours). An intermediate high was formed near $4,175 and recently the price corrected lower. It broke the $3,900 level, but the $3,780 level acted as a solid support.

The price started a fresh upside and broke the $3,900 resistance. It even broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,175 high to $3,778 low. More importantly, there is a major symmetrical triangle forming with resistance at $4,080 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair. The triangle seems to be a bullish continuation pattern towards the $4,175 and $4,300 levels. A successful break above the $4,100 and $4,150 levels is needed for further gains. Once there is a break above $4,175, the price could rally towards $4,500 or $5,000.

Bitcoin Price Analysis BTC Chart

Looking at the chart, BTC price remains well supported on dips near the $3,900 and $3,780 levels. As long as there is no close above the $3,580 pivot, the price is likely to surge towards $4,200, $4,500 or even $5,000.

Looking at the technical indicators:

4-hours MACD – The MACD for BTC/USD is about to move into the bullish zone.

4-hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI is well above the 60 level.

Major Support Level – $3,780

Major Resistance Level – $4,175

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Bitcoin Cash is 41.7% Up, Can BCH Sustain its Momentum?

The original Bitcoin Cash (BCH ABC) is having a gala day at the crypto market as it rises 40% and beyond.

The BCH/USD price on Thursday has extended its prevailing bullish bias to register new highs at 182 on Coinbase. On weekly basis, the pair has noted a 182% jump from its so-called bottom near 74, coupled with a relatively higher trading volume across all the leading crypto exchanges.

The BCH/USD downside meanwhile is capped by its 100-period moving average curve, coinciding with 104.27 at this moment. We could see price testing the said level as a part of a minor correction before it resumes the uptrend. The best rally target we could see from here is at 272, which was instrumental to a downtrend on Nov 21.

Mining Profitability

On the mining front, Bitcoin Cash hash rate has also dropped significantly in the past month. It used to be around an average of 5 Exahash per second (EH/s) but now has reduced to 1 EH/s to 850 Petahash per second (PH/s) through this December. It has eventually made mining BCH more profitable than Bitcoin, a reason why the BCH market is leading the overall crypto surge as of now.

Will Uptrend Extend?

For a cryptocurrency that had generated a lot of negative buzz due to its chain upgrade, ultimately crashing harder than any other top crypto asset, Bitcoin Cash undergoing a strong rebound is a welcome change to the market. However, despite the strong bullish sentiments in the near-term, the coin has a lot of hurdles to establish a sustained upside bias.

To begin with, the entire market is still locked inside a long-term downtrend, which also includes Bitcoin Cash. Therefore, a meager jump after a heavy crash could also be a nominal correction, a flag or pennant formation, or a call of short traders to exit their positions. It does not guarantee a full-scale recovery – not unless we see some levels broken in the medium-term, at least.

The RSI momentum indicator on the daily chart, for instance, has clearly recovered from its oversold conditions, to enter into overbought territory, but that can take Bitcoin Cash as far as, say, the 50-period moving average level. Bulls would need to do more than that to reinstate investors’ faith in Bitcoin Cash, as well as the rest of the market.

The latest uptrend is a small step towards an unlikely 100% recovery to an all-time high in the short-term and much of its responsibility is lying on the leading digital currency Bitcoin. For good or worse, Bitcoin is hopeful to pave way for the rest of the crypto market to be accepted for their characteristics in the mainstream. While Bitcoin Cash believes that is technologically better than bitcoin, it would also need to watch its adoption go high in the mainstream to be able to attract parallel investments – both from retail and institutional investors.

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Bitcoin Price Weekly Analysis: BTC Sellers In Control Below $3,600

Key Points

  • Bitcoin price extended losses below the $4,000 and $3,600 supports against the US Dollar.
  • There is a significant bearish trend line formed with resistance at $3,630 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair is currently consolidating losses above $3,200, with resistances near $3,500 and $3,600.

Bitcoin price is in a major downtrend below $4,000 against the US Dollar. BTC/USD may continue to struggle to recover above the $3,600-3,700 resistance zone.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

This past week, bitcoin price declined below the $4,000 support level against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair gained bearish momentum and traded below the $3,700 and $3,600 support levels. The decline was such that the price traded close to the $3,200 level. The price formed a new yearly low at $3,215 and it is currently well below the 100 simple moving average (4-hours).

Recently, there was a tiny upside correction above $3,400. BTC also moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,051 high to $3,215 low. However, the recovery faced a lot of selling interest near $3,550-3,600. Besides, there is a significant bearish trend line formed with resistance at $3,630 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair. The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,051 high to $3,215 low. Therefore, it won’t be easy for buyers to surpass the $3,550, $3,600 and $3,700 resistance levels. Above $3,700, the next key hurdle for buyers is at $4,000.

Bitcoin Price Analysis BTC Chart

Looking at the chart, BTC price is likely to maintain a bearish tone below $3,600. Once the current correction is complete, the price may even break the $3,200 swing low. The next key support is at $3,000 followed by $2,800.

Looking at the technical indicators:

4-hours MACD – The MACD for BTC/USD is slightly placed in the bullish zone.

4-hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI is just near the 40 level.

Major Support Level – $3,200

Major Resistance Level – $3,600

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Tron’s TRX Up Almost 40% on The Week as Odyssey 3.2 Protocol Goes Live

Tron (TRX) has surged as much as 40% this week as the global crypto market rebounded from their lowest levels this year.

The overall rebound appears in the wake of a peaceful closure between Bitcoin ABC and Bitcoin SV groups. The two, formed after the split of Bitcoin Cash blockchain, had spoiled the crypto market sentiment by waging a so-called hash war over the original BCH ticker. Weeks after ABC gained supremacy over the Bitcoin Cash network, SV conceded defeat and went its separate way as a standalone crypto-project.

Nevertheless, Tron outpaced its competitors and recovered more than twice the value of Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and EOS. On the daily basis, the coin has surged 22%, followed by Cardano up 12%, Stellar adding 9% and none the least, Bitcoin with its 6.5% gains against the US Dollar., Ripple and Litecoin has also posted impressive profits but remained behind Tron on both daily and weekly performance basis.

SOURCE: COINMARKETCAP.COM

The TRX/USD rate tested highs at $0.019 noted during the November 28 rebound attempt. The pair has reversed from its session high at $0.015 and is now targeting $0.014 as a temporary support, according to the aggregated data available at CoinMarketCap.com.

However, a Tron rally has a history of strong downside corrections. Usually, crucial project updates fill up the bullish sentiment on a near-term basis every time. But eventually, the price corrects itself after overreaching its upside targets. It happened at the time of their TVM launch in August when TRX had surged 10% on a strongly bearish day in the crypto bazaar. But the hype dried up later and the price almost dropped by more than 24% a few days later.

The latest TRX surge is a part of a market-wide crypto rally but its supremacy over the top 20 coins could be due to similar fundamentals, as discussed in the section below.

Protocol Update

In his weekly Tron update, founder Justin Sun claimed that the use of decentralized applications on Tron blockchain has surged. He also said that the daily transaction volume is touching new peaks, indicating the growth of TRX as a usable token and adoption of Tron as a public ledger.

“TRON’s official DEX has also seen strong growth with a daily transaction volume of over 100 million TRX,” Sun declared. “Based on the Bancor Protocol, the DEX receives lots of applications for token listings every day.”

Tron also released a new protocol update Odyssey-v3.2. It claims to reduce the smart contract execution costs and resolve peer synchronization problems as noted in the earlier Tron versions. Additionally, the update also solves the problem of simultaneous production block at the same witness, according to its GitHub description.

“This version improves SolidityNode block synchronization performance by turning off the index,” the post explained. “If the SolidityNode sync block is slow, you can use this version, it will greatly speed up the Block synchronization. Otherwise, there is no need to upgrade this version.”

That said, the extra green percentages should not surprise traders. Tron is still prone to wider downside correction, being in a fake breakout zone like other cryptocurrencies. Check out NewsBTC’s Tron analysis at this link for more updates.

At the time of writing, TRX was trading up over 25% on the day at $0.0158.

Image from Shutterstock