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Buy or Sell? What Traders Think About Today’s Bitcoin Cash Fork

All eyes are on the bitcoin cash (BCH) blockchain ahead of a scheduled technical upgrade tomorrow. 

While it’s a process that the world’s fourth-largest blockchain by market capitalization undergoes every six months, at which point it asks all users operating the software to upgrade to a newer version, there’s a twist this time around. Specifically, a deep contention over the cryptocurrency’s technical direction.

While previous forks have been supported en masse by bitcoin cash developers and miners, there are now marked differences of opinion between supporters of two main versions of the software – Bitcoin ABC and Bitcoin SV – over the future the direction of the code’s specific features (Bitcoin SV, most notably, would continue boosting the software’s block size). 

This is significant for those who own or trade BCH because, if neither side has majority backing, then the bitcoin cash chain will undergo a split into separate blockchains, each with its own cryptocurrency.

This raises questions for investors and potentially brings opportunities into play.

Market movements

One way to begin to assess options ahead is to look at how other traders are already responding. Over the course of four days from Nov. 2–6, the price of bitcoin cash surged 49 percent to reach a two-month high.

Perhaps not coincidentally, the jump occurred within hours of major cryptocurrency exchanges Binance and Coinbase announcing their support for the upcoming hard fork.

That’s likely because, if the major exchanges are accommodating the fork, potentially millions of traders will have access to BCH buying and will just need to wait a little for their wait for the free coins, and, as such, a wave of demand was triggered by the news.

Cryptocurrency trader Josh Rager described the sudden surge in bitcoin cash’s recent performance as an anomaly when compared to the broader market, suggesting the price rise must be a result of hype surrounding the fork.

Rager told CoinDesk:

“With current price action of BCH, it’s 100 percent related to the fork and support from exchanges. No other major cryptocurrency is seeing a notable price change.”

A technical analyst would argue though that all known information is reflected in the price of an asset and, by that logic, the sudden rise could have been foreseen. A trader going by the handle “Crypto Rand” did, in fact, suspect bitcoin cash was due for a big move anyway, although the fork news likely was the catalyst.

“Definitely the move was pushed by the news, but not only because of it. Technical analysis wise, it was also looking interesting. The current range proved solid for a long time having some good accumulation over there,” he said.

Gauging sentiment

Since many notable cryptocurrency exchanges announced support for the fork, a few have even launched futures contract-like trading for future blockchains that could be created as a result of the split, which essentially act as placeholders until the fork is complete. 

Poloniex’s ‘pre-fork trading’ has been live since Nov. 8 but will come to a close at 15:00 on Nov. 15, and at the time of writing, BCHABC and BCHSV are trading at $250 and $175 respectively. Earlier today the gap between the two prices was much narrower, indicating favor towards a particular fork is not as one-sided as many first thought

Indeed, it’s an innovative way to gauge support for the fork, but a poll conducted by CoinDesk suggested the interest among causal traders was minimal.

When asked what their trading plans were ahead of the fork, a combined 76 percent of the 2,669 users answered they either plan to “wait and see” or are simply “not interested.”

Philakone, a prominent crypto analyst, also conducted a poll asking his audiences’ opinion on the upcoming fork.

So far, 41 percent have stated they felt BTCSV is likely to fail, with 36 percent believing it will succeed. By Thursday evening, we will know who guessed right.

Pro strategies

When looking at the price performance of past forks like zclassic or bitcoin private and their 90+ percent price declines, there’s merit in using caution when considering holding onto a forked coin long-term.

This sentiment does not seem to be lost among the traders who all agree entering a trade now would contradict their risk management practices. “I would sell half instantly and trade the other half during the next week, Rand said.

A trader going by the tag “Credible Crypto” agreed, speaking to the short-term outlook that cryptocurrency traders tend to abide by:

Most are in this for a quick profit and are not aiming to hold the newly forked coin for price appreciation. Those that sell first will win, the rest will be left behind (at least until the price for this coin stabilizes).

Popular Twitter crypto analyst Nick Cote offered some final wisdom.

“I wouldn’t be buying here. Buying in hope of something is a sure way to lose money over the long-term,” he concluded.

Disclosure: The authors hold BTC, AST, REQ, OMG, FUEL, 1st, USDT and AMP at the time of writing.

Businessman looking at chart image via Shutterstock

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Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis: BCH/USD Consolidating Near Key Support

Key Points

  • Bitcoin cash price traded as high as $637 and later corrected lower against the US Dollar.
  • There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $605 on the hourly chart of the BCH/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair is currently trading near a major support at $575 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

Bitcoin cash price started a downside correction from the $640 swing high against the US Dollar. BCH/USD is currently consolidating near $575 and it could bounce back.

Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis

Yesterday, there were extended gains above the $600 resistance in bitcoin cash price against the US Dollar. The BCH/USD pair traded above the $620 resistance and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average. The price traded as high as $637 before sellers appeared. As a result, there was a downside correction and the price moved below the $600 level.

During the decline, the price broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the $534 low to $637 high. Moreover, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $605 on the hourly chart of the BCH/USD pair. The pair extended losses and it is currently trading near a major support at $575 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Besides, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the $534 low to $637 high is also near $575. Therefore, the price is likely to bounce back towards $600 and $620.

Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis BCH Chart

Looking at the chart, BCH price showing positive signs above the $575 support. There could be a fresh bearish move, but the price is likely to stay above the $540-550 zone. On the upside, a break above the $620 resistance may push the price above $650.

Looking at the technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD for BCH/USD is back in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BCH/USD is well below the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $575

Major Resistance Level – $600

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Bitcoin Cash Price Climbs 11% to Hit 2-Month High

The price of bitcoin cash rose more than 11 percent on Tuesday, pushing its price to a new two-month high.

Market data shows that the cryptocurrency’s price has risen 30 percent since Sunday, and is currently trading at roughly $623. Bitcoin cash is the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, CoinMarketCap data shows.

The price of BCH was trading hands at $425 before surging 32.5 percent, where it reached a then-peak of $588 on Nov. 5, clocking a 5-week high in the process when it was later confirmed, according to Coinbase exchange data.

The market developments come as bitcoin cash prepares for a hard fork – or backward-incompatible code change – on November 15, this time involving two different implementations: Bitcoin ABC and Bitcoin SV. The cryptocurrency was originally created by way of a hard fork off of the original bitcoin network after the scaling debate boiled over last year.

BCH’s price boost makes it one of the top-performing cryptocurrencies of the day, based on information from crypto-data sources OnChainFX and CoinMarketCap.

Other top performers for Tuesday include XRP, which hit a one-month high earlier in the day (it has since risen above $0.50 apiece as of press time) and Stellar lumens, which has climbed more than 8 percent in the past 24 hours. On Tuesday, wallet service provider Blockchain announced that it would give away $125 million in XLM as part of an airdrop for its customer base.

As of the time of writing, the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies is up more than $6 billion on a 24-hour basis, reaching a 22-day high of roughly $218 billion.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Business chart miniature image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View 

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Bitcoin Cash Price Weekly Analysis: BCH/USD Primed for More Upsides

Key Points

  • Bitcoin cash price declined sharply, but it found support near the $420 level against the US Dollar.
  • There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at $435 on the 4-hours chart of the BCH/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair may well continue to move higher once there is a break above the $450 resistance.

Bitcoin cash price is placed well above the $420 support against the US Dollar. BCH/USD could accelerate above the $450 and $460 resistances in the near term.

Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis

This past week, there were losses noted below the $450 support level in bitcoin cash price against the US Dollar. The BCH/USD pair declined and even broke the $440 support. It traded close to the $420 support area where buyers emerged. There was a strong buying interest near the $420 level and later the price started a decent recovery. It moved above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent slide from the $458 high to $423 low.

More importantly, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at $435 on the 4-hours chart of the BCH/USD pair. The pair climbed above the $440 resistance as well, but it is still trading well below the 100 simple moving average (4-hours). The current wave is facing hurdles near the $450 resistance (the previous support). Moreover, the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent slide from the $458 high to $423 low is also acting as a strong resistance.

Bitcoin Cash Price Weekly Analysis BCH Chart

Looking at the chart, BCH price must break the $450 resistance level to enter a bullish zone. The next major hurdles for buyers are near the $460 and $475 levels. The main support on the downside is at $420.

Looking at the technical indicators:

4-hours MACD – The MACD for BCH/USD is slightly in the bullish zone.

4-hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is well above the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $420

Major Resistance Level – $450

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Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis: BCH/USD is Struggling Below $450

Key Points

  • Bitcoin cash price failed to recover above the $440 and $450 resistance levels against the US Dollar.
  • There is a connecting bearish trend line in place with resistance at $444 on the hourly chart of the BCH/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair could decline below $420 if it continues to struggle near the $440-450 zone.

Bitcoin cash price is facing a tough barrier at $450 against the US Dollar. BCH/USD may consolidate between $420-450 before it makes the next move.

Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis

Recently, there was a minor upside correction above the $430 level in bitcoin cash price against the US Dollar. The BCH/USD pair traded above the $440 level as well. Moreover, there was a slight upward move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $515 high to $422 low. However, the price failed to gain pace above the $445 and $450 levels.

There was also no proper close above the $440 level as the price struggled near the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is also a connecting bearish trend line in place with resistance at $444 on the hourly chart of the BCH/USD pair. The pair is trading well below the $450 resistance and the 100 hourly SMA, which is a bearish sign. On the downside, the price remains at a risk of a break below $420 and $410. Below these, the price may perhaps test the $400 handle.

Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis BCH Chart

Looking at the chart, BCH price seems to be trading in a range above $420. The next break could be either above $450 or below $420 in the near term. Above $450, the price may possibly correct towards the $468 level. It represents the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $515 high to $422 low.

Looking at the technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD for BCH/USD is slowly moving in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BCH/USD is well below the 40 level.

Major Support Level – $420

Major Resistance Level – $450