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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Weekly TA Reveals Bulls Under Pressure

As Bitcoin closed the week on another ‘Bloody Sunday’ candle, which dropped to new 2019 lows, making yet another painful yet somewhat predictable reversal, we take a look at the price action and try to establish what we should be looking for with the week ahead.   


Weekly

Bitcoin price 00 closed the week at $3536, with the decline on Sunday largely reversing the gains made through the week.

Despite making lows on Sunday at $3481, a bounce back to a close at $3542 meant avoiding a new 2018 candle close low, with the weekly candle forming an inverted hammer, which is considered a relatively bullish sign.

Despite this, Bitcoin is still stuck in no man’s land with initial significant resistance overhead at $4,050 and support at $3200.

Daily

The daily chart shows a slightly clearer picture, illustrating that Bitcoin does have some preliminary support at $3500, which is now coming under some pressure and likely to be retested again at some point this week despite there being early signs of a tweezer bottom early on Monday morning.

The more concerning factor for the bulls is the continued declining resistance which ultimately suggests that any bullish move will be capped between $3700 – $3800 where there will be significant short interest.

This would imply that there is likely to be a test towards the lows at $3200s where we last saw significant buying interest and strong historical support when Bitcoin fell from $5,000 to $3,000 during 2017.

The question will be if it is tested, could it go on to complete a W shapedbottom or Adam and Eve, or will we look to new lower lows in this bear market.

4 Hour

The 4 hour chart shows that should there be a further decline, there may be a pit stop at the $3350 range which is the 78.6% retracement level from the move from the previous lows.

If tested, a strong bounce here would be a positive sign for the bulls but the main task remains; to break the declining resistance and the $4,000 handle.

All oscillators are drifiting sideways and  not really adding anything for the analysis so are not shown on that basis.

Market Sentiment

As reported previously, the balance of market sentiment remains bullish, with the leveraged bull positions out weighing the bears by 1.4:1, which is not positive for a bullish narrative while the price is declining.

As we have seen in previous senarios like this – the bulls are essentially exposed, which leads the author to believe that a hard test of the low $3,000s is likely given what has happened

Trade Bitcoin, Litecoin and other cryptocurrencies on online Bitcoin forex broker platform evolve.markets.  

To get receive updates for the writer you can follow on Twitter (@filbfilb) and TradingView.


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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bulls Too Confident, Too Soon

After the sharp decline for Bitcoin price yesterday retesting the low $3,500s we take a closer look at whats going on with the market.


Bitcoin Price: 4-Hour Bitcoin Chart

Bitcoin price 00 has failed to regain the critical $3750 point of control so far this week and is still consolidating under it after being rejected by the $4k handle and scuppering the short term hopes of an inverse head and shoulders bottom.

Last night saw the price fall from highs of $3680 and a subsequent bounce back today, before once again being rejected and settle around $3600, but seemingly continues to be drawn towards the mid $3000s rather than pressing on to new highs.

Sentiment Analysis

Looking more closely at the market we can see that the sentiment in the market is bullish, with longs out weighing shorts by 30k to 22k at Bitfinex.

While this may suggest that the market believes that there is hope that the bottom is in and upside can be expected, the issue is that generally speaking, the longs at 30k is reaching the maximum levels the market tends to see, with these positions being built all the way down to $6k.

During this time, short positions have also closed from 40k down to 22k.

This means that despite the buying pressure of both combined, the market remains stuck around the mid $3ks, which is the 61% retracement of the bounce from $3.1k.

Looking at the total leverage exposure, this is also beginging to reach out towards the 50k lows that we have previously seen.  As highlighted on the chart, it becomes clear that where we have seen these conditions in the past, we have seen a sharp selloff to retest the lows.

Bitcoin is therefore starting to reveal some underlying weakness in its market posture and indicates that another retest of the low $3ks could be on the horizon in the near future.

With CBOE XBT futures expiring today, there may be some hope of a short term relief rally as we have seen previously but generally speaking it seems likely that Bitcoin price needs to prove its metal at the $3.1ks before we move higher.

[Disclaimer:  The views expressed in this article are the personal opinion of the author and do not reflect the views of Bitcoinist. The information in the article should not be taken as financial advice.]

To get receive updates for the writer you can follow on Twitter (@filbfilb) and TradingView.

Does Bitcoin price action suggest we will head lower? Where is the bottom? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.


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Bitcoin Hovers Over $3,650 as Top Cryptocurrencies Mostly in the Red

Most of the top 20 cryptocurrencies are reporting moderate to slight losses, with Bitcoin hovering over $3,650.

Saturday, Jan. 12 — most of the top 20 cryptocurrencies are reporting moderate to slight losses, while some are reporting up to double-digit gains. Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is still hovering over $3,650, according to Coin360 data.

Market visualization

Market visualization from Coin360

At press time, Bitcoin is down under 1 percent on the day, trading at around $3,665. Looking at its weekly chart, the current price is lower than $3,878, the price of BTC one week ago, and $4,108, the mid-week high reported on Tuesday.

Bitcoin 7-day price chart

Bitcoin 7-day price chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

Ripple (XRP) is down over 1 percent on the day, trading at around $0.333 at press time. On the weekly chart, the current price is lower than $0.359, the price at which XRP started the week — but also lower than $0.381, the midweek high reported on Jan. 10.

Ripple 7-day price chart

Ripple 7-day price chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

Ethereum (ETH) has seen its value decrease by over 1 percent over the last 24 hours. At press time, ETH is trading at around $126, having started the day around $127. On the weekly chart, Ethereum’s current value is significantly lower than $157, the price at which the coin started the week.

Ethereum 7-day chart

Ethereum 7-day chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

Among the top 20 cryptocurrencies, the ones experiencing the most notable price action are Bitcoin SV, which is up over 12 percent, and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Ethereum Classic, which are up around 2 and 1 percent respectively.

The combined market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies — currently equivalent to about $122.2 billion — is lower than $133 billion, the value it reported one week ago. The current value is also substantially lower than the intra-week high of $138.6 billion reached on Jan 10.

Total crypto market cap 7-day chart

Total crypto market cap 7-day chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

As Cointelegraph recently reported, the number of active Bitcoin wallets, many of which have long been dormant, has seen an uptick that could herald some major market movements.

The state legislature of the American state of Wyoming has reportedly passed two new house bills this week that aim to foster a regulatory environment conducive to cryptocurrency and blockchain innovation.

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Bitcoin Price Holds $4K As One Transaction Sets 2019 Volume High

The Bitcoin price was testing support at $4000 again January 7 after a sudden volume spike took the cryptocurrency 7 percent higher in minutes.


Did One Whale Move Bitcoin Above $4000?

Data from Bitcointicker confirmed a slight reversal for Bitcoin price 00 the day after the uptick, which saw BTC/USD hit two-week highs to top $4200 Sunday.

After remaining around those levels for around 18 hours, a U-turn set in, the price declining below $3800 before correcting to current levels around $4000.

The reason for the fresh volatility, commentators have since speculated on social media, was a single transaction.

According to Twitter account Whale Alerts, which publishes automated notices whenever large Bitcoin transactions occur, one investor moved 2521 BTC ($10.1 million) off cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp to a private wallet Sunday.

Long-Term Downward Trends

This, Forbes notes, in turn took the day’s Bitcoin trade volume to a new high for 2019.

“A surge of 6.5 percent in 30 minutes is not entirely uncommon for bitcoin and could very well be caused by a single large order on an exchange or even by a lack of liquidity in the market,” the publication quoted UK-based trading platform eToro analyst Mati Greenspan as saying.

What’s interesting about this move is that it did bring us above the $4000 level and so far is holding onto the gains.

Despite the temporary dip since Greenspan’s comments, the Bitcoin price remains around $200 clear of its previous levels, which it had traded at since the beginning of the month.

Opinions about the future are mixed, with some traders continuing to claim further significant downside is due for BTC/USD, possibly taking the pair as low as $1300 or beyond. Others, such as Weiss Ratings, think Bitcoin will conversely make huge gains this year.

A longer-term theory currently circulating on Twitter predicts a Bitcoin price ‘bottom’ in October 2019, followed by a fresh period of gains to a top of $160,000 in 2023.

Where will Bitcoin price go in the near and long terms? Share below!


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Crypto Markets See Green as Bitcoin Nears $3,900 and Ethereum Touches $160

The crypto markets are seeing a wave of green, with Bitcoin near $3,900 and Ethereum close to $160.

Saturday, Jan. 5 — the crypto markets are mainly in the green today, as Bitcoin (BTC) moves closer to the $3,900 mark, data from Coin360 shows.

Market visualization by Coin360

Market visualization by Coin360

Bitcoin has shown slight growth today, up by around 3 percent and trading at about $3,899 at press time. Over the month, Bitcoin is up almost 1 percent and almost 7 percent over the week.

Bitcoin 7-day price chart

Bitcoin 7-day price chart. Source: Cointelegraph’s Bitcoin Price Index.

Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading at around $159, up more than 6 percent on the day at press time. The second-largest cryptocurrency is seeing around 35 percent gains over the week, and 47 percent gains over the month.

This week, developers from Ethereum discussed the possibility of implementing a new proof-of-work (PoW) algorithm that would raise the efficiency of GPU-based — rather than ASIC-based — mining on the network. The debate over whether to go forward with the implementation comes ahead of the upcoming Ethereum Constantinople hard fork.

Ethereum’s 7-day price chart

Ethereum’s 7-day price chart. Source: Cointelegraph’s Ethereum Price Index

Third-largest cryptocurrency Ripple (XRP) is up over 2 percent at press time, trading at around $0.36. Over the week, the coin has seen more than 7 percent growth, and almost 5 percent gains over the month.

Ripple 7-day price chart

Ripple 7-day price chart. Source: Cointelegraph’s Ripple Price Index.

The total market cap of all cryptocurrencies is currently around $133 billion at press time, up from its weekly low of about $125 billion.

7-day chart of total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies

7-day chart of total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies from CoinMarketCap

Of the top ten cryptocurrencies, Litecoin (LTC) and TRON are showing the biggest growth, up over 12 and 15 percent respectively.

Earlier this week, the Gemini crypto exchange — founded by the Winklevoss twins in 2014 — released a series of ads calling for better regulation of the crypto space. The ads, which read “Crypto needs rules,” were received with mixed reactions from the crypto community, as some believe the space suffers from the intervention of regulators.

Also this week, five more crypto exchanges — including Coincheck — joined Japan’s self-regulatory association of cryptocurrency exchanges.