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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Weekly TA Reveals Bulls Under Pressure

As Bitcoin closed the week on another ‘Bloody Sunday’ candle, which dropped to new 2019 lows, making yet another painful yet somewhat predictable reversal, we take a look at the price action and try to establish what we should be looking for with the week ahead.   


Weekly

Bitcoin price 00 closed the week at $3536, with the decline on Sunday largely reversing the gains made through the week.

Despite making lows on Sunday at $3481, a bounce back to a close at $3542 meant avoiding a new 2018 candle close low, with the weekly candle forming an inverted hammer, which is considered a relatively bullish sign.

Despite this, Bitcoin is still stuck in no man’s land with initial significant resistance overhead at $4,050 and support at $3200.

Daily

The daily chart shows a slightly clearer picture, illustrating that Bitcoin does have some preliminary support at $3500, which is now coming under some pressure and likely to be retested again at some point this week despite there being early signs of a tweezer bottom early on Monday morning.

The more concerning factor for the bulls is the continued declining resistance which ultimately suggests that any bullish move will be capped between $3700 – $3800 where there will be significant short interest.

This would imply that there is likely to be a test towards the lows at $3200s where we last saw significant buying interest and strong historical support when Bitcoin fell from $5,000 to $3,000 during 2017.

The question will be if it is tested, could it go on to complete a W shapedbottom or Adam and Eve, or will we look to new lower lows in this bear market.

4 Hour

The 4 hour chart shows that should there be a further decline, there may be a pit stop at the $3350 range which is the 78.6% retracement level from the move from the previous lows.

If tested, a strong bounce here would be a positive sign for the bulls but the main task remains; to break the declining resistance and the $4,000 handle.

All oscillators are drifiting sideways and  not really adding anything for the analysis so are not shown on that basis.

Market Sentiment

As reported previously, the balance of market sentiment remains bullish, with the leveraged bull positions out weighing the bears by 1.4:1, which is not positive for a bullish narrative while the price is declining.

As we have seen in previous senarios like this – the bulls are essentially exposed, which leads the author to believe that a hard test of the low $3,000s is likely given what has happened

Trade Bitcoin, Litecoin and other cryptocurrencies on online Bitcoin forex broker platform evolve.markets.  

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Images courtesy of Tradingview, Shutterstock

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Unchanged as Volatility Taper

  • Bitcoin Price trading range tight
  • Bulgaria’s NRA introduces a 10 percent tax on crypto profits
  • Transaction volumes low as BTC/USD range within Jan 14 high-low

Candlestick arrangement favors bulls. However, as the government opens up, we recommend patience until after Bitcoin prices rally above $4,500 in line with our last BTC/USD trade plan.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Fundamentals

The thing is, governments irrespective of jurisdiction won’t budge and will see towards enforcement of their initiatives. Under the guise of investor protection–whereas the so-called investors are on average tech savvy with full control of their funds, the government will always advance their causes regardless of resistance.

The market is steadying, and accompanying volatility means levies imposed on businesses or individuals would further cause imbalance. On average, BTC prices move sway roughly eight percent, which is huge more so when compared to fluid and highly liquid markets as Forex. However, what’s of concern is the drop from $6,000 to $3,500 in a record two months.

That’s a 55 percent drop which makes it unrealistic for crypto traders and investors in Bulgaria via National Revenue Agency (NRA) to pay for a 10 percent tax on their profits. The best approach is iron out difference ensuring that policies adopted satisfy governments as well as industry’s stakeholders.

Candlestick Arrangements

Bitcoin

BTC is virtually unmoved in the last day. Everything else constant, this is bullish, and we expect Bitcoin bulls to find support in days ahead. Note that while bears may be on top from a top-down approach, candlestick formation points to bulls in the short to medium-term.

It’s easy to see why. When we paste a simple Fibonacci retracement tool from Dec 2018 high low, bulls appear to find support from the 50 to 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level. Besides, the double bar bull reversal pattern of Jan 14 anchors bulls, confining price action of the last few days.

Overly, we expect BTC to edge higher. Ideally gains above $4,500 would pave the way for a possible rally towards $5,800–$6,000 resistance as our trading conditions as stated in previous BTC/USD trade plans are met.

Technical Indicators

Like yesterday, trade volumes are thin. As prices struggle at Dec 28 lows, we need hints of participation before execution. One of them will be a spike in transaction activity. If prices rally above $4,000 confirming the double bar bull reversal pattern of Jan 13-14, then accompanying transactional volumes should be above 17k. Most importantly it should be above 35k eclipsing those of Jan 10.

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$1,000 Bitcoin Puzzle Hidden in Paris Street Mural Now Solved

It took no more than a week to solve a $1,000 Bitcoin puzzle hidden in a street mural in Paris. The exact solution is yet to be revealed. 


Paris Puzzle Solved

Bitcoinist reported on January 7th that a street artist Pascal Boyart has painted a ‘revolutionary’ street mural in celebration of the 10th birthday of the Genesis block.

Hidden within the mural was a Bitcoin puzzle with a 0.26 BTC or $1,000 reward, which later grew to 0.28 BTC following a few public donations.

Six days later, it seems that the puzzle has been solved.

Twitter account Antoine Giver of Etherium (@a_ferron) wrote:

@marabrito31 & I just found the @pascalboyart’s mural painting puzzle in Paris. We are very happy to win this race. We thank PBoy, @alistairmilne, and every people involved in this artwork for their creativity.

‘Spread Bitcoin’

The exact solution to the puzzle is yet to be revealed.

“We’ll post the story and details of our finding in the following days. Spread Bitcoin!” writes Antoine.

The only thing that the user has shared is that they “think this painting clearly exposes the fight of French citizens who were always united during History to triumph over bankers lies.”

The mural itself does have a revolutionary note to it, depicting a woman waving the French flag in what seems a call to fight, backed by men in yellow vests.

The yellow vest movement in France started in November 2018 after the country’s government decided to raise fuel prices. Thousands of people marched to the streets and a large number of them were wearing yellow vests. Bitcoinist reported that the group is planning a bank run to collapse the Euro.

What do you think about the street mural in Paris and the Bitcoin puzzle in it? Don’t hesitate to let us know in the comments below!


Images courtesy of Shutterstock

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Losses Coincide with China’s New Policies

  • Bitcoin Price slow down after sinking 10 percent
  • China introduces new privacy quashing blockchain rules
  • Trading volumes steady but bearish

Even though today’s losses are low, there is hope for traders as long as Bitcoin prices are oscillating above $3,700. Drops below this minor support line could trigger sells towards $3,220 or lower in the next few days.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

At spot prices, Bitcoin is down 3.8 percent in the past 24 hours but stable in the last hour. The coin is flat and trading within a tight trade range contrary to yesterday’s rapidity.

From candlestick arrangement, we expect prices to cool down and even expand towards $4,000 before bears wash down gains in the direction of Jan 10 losses while reaffirming bear trend continuation as spelled by the price action of mid-November and early Dec 2018. Our short-term bullish trend is valid and until after there is a clean break and close below $3,700, there is hope for BTC long traders.

Fundamentals

Different governments have different views on cryptocurrencies. To meet popular demand, some are opening doors and even allowing exchanges to self-regulate. Countries like Japan are very open, embracing new technology while others are not interested in the application of blockchain to create competing, censor resistant currencies.

When everything is said and done, it’s all about control and China, as we know, is strict. Although we understand their companies are leaders in crypto, filling patents rivaling those from the US and Europe, the country is against the proliferation of Bitcoin and crypto. However, they see a future in the blockchain. That is why the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) is releasing a new document detailing new regulation that crypto and blockchain companies must adhere with.

Once it becomes law by Feb 19,2019, blockchain companies would divulge log user activities on request, allow authorities access to private data and even reveal groups or individuals behind secret or anonymous accounts. It bins all blockchain principles and is authoritarian even though it is for the good of national security.

Candlestick Arrangement

Bitcoin

As aforementioned and from previous BTC/USD trade plans, the rejection of higher highs right off the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level hints of underlying bear momentum. Since none of our conservative trade conditions came to pass and bulls didn’t close above $4,500, we recommend patience aware that liquidation below $3,700 or Dec 28 bulls and bull flag base could lead to further drops to $3,220. Uncertainty reigns and to avoid the claws of bears, we suggest liquidating BTC holdings for stable coins while stepping up if prices drop below $3,700.

Technical Indicators

Jan 10 declines were at the back of above average volumes—35k versus 18k right off the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level. Reversal at this level was significant. Any confirming drops below $3,700–even with light volumes, could lead to further drawn down in sync with Dec 20 high volume bear bar—117k versus 37k.

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EXCLUSIVE: Mystery ‘8 Whale’ Moves 5% of Total Bitcoin Supply in the Past Month

A new Bitcoin mystery has emerged. 848,000 BTC or almost 5 percent of the total supply, is contained within 106 addresses, each one holding exactly 8,000 BTC. What’s more, all were recently created as bitcoin reached the lowest price in over a year. 


Weird Coincidence?

According to the ‘Rich List’ on BitInfoCharts, there are 106 Bitcoin addresses which reveal freakishly close similarities. These addresses number from 125 to 231 on the given list. Strangely, each one of them contains exactly 8,000 BTC.

Each one has its transactions deliberately structured to amount to give the number 8,000. For instance, some of the addresses have two transactions, adding up to exactly 8,000 BTC, while others have more than 10 in different bits and chunks to add up to the exact same number.

Just a popular, nice big round number you say?

Well, 10,000 is even nicer, and rounder. But there are only about 20 such addresses and they don’t share the same similarities as the 8K BTC bunch.

But it gets even weirder.

All of these (noticeably non-SegWit and non-multisig) addresses have received the funds within the same time period: from November 30th to December 6th.

All 106 addresses account for 848,000 BTC moved or 4.86 percent of the total supply.

The transactional structure, the matching amount of BTC in each address, as well as the accumulation period indicate that all of these addresses have likely been created by the same entity.

So is it a major exchange moving funds?

Probably not. For one, creating over a hundred different wallets with the exact same number of BTC is not typical of an exchange. Additionally, most known exchange wallets are marked as such and many are found in the top 10 of the richest wallets list.

What’s more, these addresses comprise a staggering amount of almost 850,000 BTC. Compare this to Binance, which holds around 165,000 BTC in two different labeled cold wallets. Despite it being the largest crypto exchange in by volume, its holdings are still over 5 times lower than of the mysterious wallets.

If this mysterious ‘8 whale’ is indeed one entity, the total amount dwarfs even the richest wallet address on the list belonging to Bitfinex with around 138,000 BTC.

$3.18 Billion Worth of BTC at Year Low Prices

Even more interesting, all of the 106 wallets have been created while Bitcoin was trading at its lowest price 00 in over a year.

The highest price of BTC during the mentioned 7-day period of creation was around $4,320 according to CoinMarketCap. Prior to November this year, the last time Bitcoin was trading under $4,320 was in October 2017.

It’s unclear what the purpose of this structuring is or who, in fact, ultimately controls the private keys.

We also don’t know whether the entity controlling this massive amount of BTC (assuming it’s the same entity) is simply trying to not put all the eggs in one basket or is distributing the funds for some other purpose.

Whale breaching and diving.

Could a super-wealthy investor or fund manager be moving this many bitcoins over-the-counter? Are they Chinese? (The number 8 is indeed culturally significant in China and associated with fortune.)

But if this was indeed ‘buying’ – wouldn’t the price shoot up during the given period considering roughly $3.1 billion was moved at today’s prices?

Perhaps it’s an early adopter who’s spreading out their holdings to mitigate risk and/or collect forked coins? Or maybe it’s a major institution moving its funds around? Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust, for example, was reported earlier this month to now control 1 percent of total supply. Could there be an even bigger unknown institutional player moving billions beneath the surface?

One can only guess.

However, with the prices and transaction fees being as low as they are, it’s safe to say that whoever did this, likely did it at the right time.

What do you think of this peculiar accumulation of 8K BTC addresses? Don’t hesitate to let us know in the comments below!


Images courtesy of Shutterstock