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One Month Later, Which Crypto Is Winning the Bitcoin Cash Split?

One month has officially passed since the bitcoin cash blockchain underwent a hard fork on November 15, resulting in the creation of two distinct networks.

They’re now commonly referred to as Bitcoin Cash ABC and Bitcoin SV. Yet in the weeks that followed the mid-November fracture, there is still no favorite in terms of overall price.

Bitcoin cash is designed in such a way that, every six months, its users must ‘fork’ the blockchain and adopt a software upgrade with changes determined by the project’s open-source software developers.

If the developers and miners reach consensus as to what the upgrades should be, the main chain stays intact and simply adopts the software upgrade known as a ‘soft fork’.

All bitcoin cash forks had fallen under the ‘soft’ category, but circumstances were different with the latest fork. This time around, the upgrades could not be agreed upon and tension grew among developers, so the main chain experienced a divisive hard fork – in other words, it split into two separate chains with their own cryptocurrencies.

Since the fork, both BCHABC and BSV have been trading on public cryptocurrency exchanges like Binance and Coinbase, but after 30 days of wild volatility and drastic swings in hash power, their prices stand just $10 apart.

Where are they now?

Bitcoin cash prices reached a peak of $621 in November but had fallen 32 percent to $421 on Nov. 14, the day before the scheduled fork. according to CoinDesk’s pricing data.

After the split, the two newly created cryptocurrencies bitcoin cash ABC and Bitcoin SV hit the market and began trading at $295 and $90 respectively on the Binance exchange.

It should be noted that multiple exchanges including Poloniex and Bitfinex engaged in ‘pre fork trading’ before the fork took place.

These experimental markets involved the trading of ‘IOU’ token place holders for BCHABC and BSV redeemable post-fork, theoretically allowing exchange users to decide amongst themselves which fork to support.

For much of November, BCHABC was the distinct price leader, at times valued as much as 10 times that of its counterpart.

The difference between the two narrowed as the month elapsed, so much so that Bitcoin SV was able to take a brief price lead on Dec. 6.

Since the fork, the broader cryptocurrency market has witnessed a significant sell-off of more than $80 billion in terms of total capitalization. As a result, the two forks depreciated greatly in price.

At the time of writing, BCHABC (currently trading under the BCH ticker on many exchanges) is valued at just $80, while BSV is $70, according to CoinMarketCap, so it’s clear the public has yet to pick an undisputed favorite.

Looking forward

While the long term success of BCHABC and BSV will likely be dictated by usage and hash power, technical analysis can be applied to their price charts so a more immediate direction of the assets prices can be anticipated.

As can be seen in the BSV/USDT chart above, price began forming a bearish consolidation pattern known as the descending triangle on Nov. 26, which broke down on Dec. 16. 

The break of triangle support at $84 opened the doors for more depreciation with just two notable support levels nearby: $74 and $54. Based on the large size of the triangle pattern, it seems the lower support level is likely to be reached although the oversold conditions seen on the intraday relative strength index (RSI) may slow the fall.

There is less to glean from the BCHABC chart since it has been in a steady, near 80 percent downtrend ever since hitting the market.

With no known support levels nearby, it’s difficult to predict where its price may eventually pick up bid although oversold conditions are evident on the higher time frame charts, so sellers may soon take a breather allowing for a corrective bounce.

Needless to say, it’s unlikely either of the newly forked cryptocurrencies pick up strong big until bitcoin and the broader market does as well.

Disclosure: The author holds BTC, AST, REQ, OMG, FUEL, 1st and AMP at the time of writing.

Locked forks image via Shutterstock; charts by TradingView

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Bitcoin Cash Tanks 13 Percent as Major Cryptocurrencies All Fall Hard

The cryptocurrency bear market continues in earnest as Bitcoin Cash investors in particular see holdings evaporate.

Friday, Dec. 14 — Bitcoin Cash (BCH) led fresh losses across cryptocurrency markets as investors in the top twenty assets by market cap shouldered new lows.

Market visualization

Market visualization from Coin360

Data from Cointelegraph’s own price index, Coin360 and Coinmarketcap painted a gloomy picture at press time Friday, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping about 3.5 percent in 24 hours.

Having staved off a move below last week’s current “bottom” around $3220, BTC/USD has failed to find support much higher, now circling $3300 to cap almost 50 percent monthly losses.

 Bitcoin 7-day price chart

Bitcoin 7-day price chart. Source: Cointelegraph Bitcoin Price Index

Worries over the fate of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) gaining United States’ regulators’ approval in February have combined with uncertainty over when the 2018 bear could end to limit the largest cryptocurrency’s prospects for gains in the short term.

Many still remain steadfast believers in a Bitcoin U-turn, the most recent of which was ratings agency Weiss, which this week said BTC represented one of the “best buying opportunities” of the year at current prices.

In altcoin markets, BCH continued what had become a common sight for day traders this week, losing more against USD than any other asset in the top twenty.

A hashrate war with rival faction Bitcoin SV (BSV) has continued since the pair split from the BCH chain in a contentious hard fork Nov. 15.

Since then, BSV has made a habit of trading inverse to BTC, gaining when the majority of assets fall and vice versa.

Friday revealed BCH as the major loser, however, shedding market cap to fall below the USD price of Ethereum (ETH) for the first time on a 13.3 percent daily drop.

Just $125 million now separates the market cap of BCH and BSV.

Bitcoin Cash 7-day price chart

Bitcoin Cash 7-day price chart. Source: Cointelegraph Bitcoin Cash Price Index

ETH itself meanwhile failed to capitalize on updates about its Constantinople hard fork which will bring various technological advances to the network.

At press time, ETH/USD was trailing at around $86, its lowest level since May 2017.

Ethereum 7-day price chart

Ethereum 7-day price chart. Source: Cointelegraph Ethereum Price Index

Other major altcoins saw losses between 1 percent and 9 percent, BSV coming in second behind BCH’s performance.

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Bitcoin Price Consolidates Sub-$3.5K With Bulls and Bears in Stalemate

Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating below $3,500 for the third day straight.

The challenge now is to gauge whether the bulls or the bears will win out in the coming days.

As discussed yesterday, the leading cryptocurrency could soon see a corrective rally if prices manage to clear the crucial resistance at $3,633 (the high of an “inverted hammer” candle on the 3-day chart) by Friday’s UTC close.

The bull case is also bolstered by bitcoin’s 14-week relative strength index, which is reporting oversold conditions for the first time since January 2015. A corrective rally, therefore, looks overdue.

The odds of a move above $3,633 would rise if BTC’s five-day-long narrowing price range ends with a bullish breakout. As of writing, the upper edge of the price range is located at $3,456 and the lower edge is seen at $3,360.

However, it’s worth remembering that BTC has repeatedly struggled to score a significant and lasting rally in recent weeks, despite the very oversold conditions.

BTC is currently trading at $3,400 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.75 percent drop on a 24-hour basis.

Hourly Chart

BTC has created a symmetrical triangle (narrowing price range) on the hourly chart. A bull breakout would validate the argument put forward by the 3-day inverted hammer candle that bargain hunters are beginning to challenge the bears’ resolve to push prices lower.

As a result, the triangle breakout, if confirmed, could yield a quick move higher to $3,633.

BTC, however, risks falling to the 200-week moving average (MA) of $3,179 if prices pierce the triangle support of $3,360. That long-term MA support will likely hold ground, as the 14-week RSI is reporting extreme oversold conditions.

6-hour chart

Many market technicians believe that a break of an RSI trendline often precedes the break of a trendline in price.

Going by that logic, the falling channel breakout in the 6-hour chart RSI could be considered an advance warning of an impending bullish price move.

View

  • Bitcoin could see a stronger recovery rally if prices close above $3,633 on Friday.
  • A symmetrical triangle breakout on the hourly chart would boost the probability of BTC finding acceptance above $3,633.
  • A symmetrical triangle breakdown would be a bearish development, although downside could be restricted around the 200-week MA of $3,179.
  • That said, the bullish scenario looks more likely to play out, as the 14-week RSI is signaling extreme oversold conditions and the 6-hour RSI is biased toward bulls.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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Bitcoin Price Charts Indicate Glimmer of Hope for Corrective Rally

Bitcoin’s (BTC) struggle to build a notable bounce could end if prices beat key resistance above $3,600.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value fell to 15-month lows near $3,200 last week, pushing the 14-week relative strength index (RSI) below 30.00 for the first time since 2015.

So, with bitcoin so extremely oversold, a recovery rally cannot be ruled out – more so because there is evidence of bargain hunters challenging the bears’ resolve to push prices lower.

For instance, BTC posted a three-day candle on Dec. 8 that closed below support at $3,463 (low of multiple three-day candles in September 2017), bolstering the already bearish technical setup. Despite that, BTC not only avoided a drop to $3,000 in the last 72 hours but also hit a high of $3,633, if briefly.

Nevertheless, the fact that prices were able to defy the bearish setup indicates that the bulls are beginning to flex a little muscle.

Therefore, a stronger rally could unfold if prices manage to cross the newfound resistance of $3,633 in the next 48 hours or so.

As of writing, BTC is trading at $3,414 on Bitstamp, having clocked a low of $3,325 earlier today.

3-day chart

As seen above, bitcoin has charted an “inverted hammer” candle, which occurs when prices see a brief rally during a downtrend. It is widely considered a sign of potential trend reversal.

The bullish reversal, however, would be confirmed if the follow-through is positive, that is, the current 3-day candle needs to close above $3,633 on Friday.

That could see prices open up upside toward the psychological resistance of $4,000.

Daily chart

On the daily chart, the 14-day RSI has posted a higher low as opposed to the lower low on price, meaning the indicator is diverging in favor of the bulls.

However, again, a high-volume move above $3,633 is needed to confirm a short-term bullish reversal.

View

  • A convincing move above $3,633 would validate the inverted hammer candle seen in the 3-day chart and open the doors for a stronger corrective rally to $4,000.
  • A break above $3,633 would also confirm a bullish divergence of the 14-day RSI and open up upside on the daily chart toward $4,400 (Nov. 29 high).
  • A break below the recent low of $3,210 would reinforce the overall bearish view, although oversold conditions on the 14-week RSI could limit the downside around $3,000.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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The Biggest Rises and Falls of Bitcoin, Explained

There have been rises of 1,950 percent in a year, and falls of 50 percent in a day. Here’s a look at the turbulent history of cryptocurrency.

5. November 2018

What is it about Novembers?

Over the course of 2018, Bitcoin has had an annus horribilis — with prices tumbling by more than 83 percent when compared to the all-time high of $19,783.

This is worse than the Nasdaq’s plunge when the dot-com bubble burst in the U.S. — and it has also delivered catastrophic consequences for many other digital currencies, which have now been rendered worthless. This is because the fate of many coins, and indeed other cryptocurrencies, is tied to blockchain in some way or another. Just take a look at Ethereum as a case in point, which has tumbled from $1,400 toward the start of 2018 to about $110 at the time of writing.

To get an idea of the enormity of this drop, Bitcoin hadn’t dipped below $4,000 since September 2017 before November’s bloodbath began. In the space of a week, Bitcoin Cash plummeted more than 56 percent — and was even overtaken by EOS briefly from a market capitalization perspective, leaving it relegated to the fifth-largest coin in the marketplace.

Following the ups and downs of the crypto market doesn’t need to be a daunting experience. Keeping an eye on the news can help ensure that you stay one step ahead — and get an idea of when major events are going to have an impact on prices. Sites such as Coin360 have also been making the market easier to navigate — offering a visual representation of cryptocurrencies and coins in real time. The size of each graphic reflects the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization — with prices and percentage changes illustrated in red and green so enthusiasts can see where the industry is heading at a glance.

 

Disclaimer. Cointelegraph does not endorse any content or product on this page. While we aim at providing you all important information that we could obtain, readers should do their own research before taking any actions related to the company and carry full responsibility for their decisions, nor this article can be considered as an investment advice.

4. December 2017

Bitcoin has had startling highs as well as lows.

Over the course of 2017, Bitcoin grew by a dazzling 1,950 percent — going from $974 to $20,000 in the space of a year.

Back then, as this article from Cointelegraph at the end of last year shows, there were warnings from certain commentators that a bubble was looming. Perhaps it would have been prescient to remember the wisdom of Nelly Furtado at the time. That said, crypto advocates continue to maintain that the volatility of Bitcoin can be as much of a help as a hindrance — and believe that, one day soon, it will perform in line with the glory days of 2017.

3. April 2013

Percentage-wise, one of the biggest falls in Bitcoin’s value.

With dizzying speed, the cryptocurrency managed to swell to a price of $260 in a bullish market, as exchanges blossomed and trader numbers boomed. But as Nelly Furtado once said, all good things must come to an end. The price tumbled down to $45 in the space of two days — a decline of 83 percent. Even roller coaster rides aren’t that brutal.

2. November 2013

Arguably the most famous decline in Bitcoin’s history.

Toward the end of 2013, the price of a single Bitcoin was about to reach $1,200 — modest by today’s standards but a big deal at the time. In the preceding weeks, a United States Senate hearing had buoyed the market by concluding that Bitcoin held great promise, and even China’s Central Bank had offered cautious approval.

But it wasn’t to last. China then concluded that Bitcoin was not a currency and began to impose restrictions. The bear market certainly wasn’t helped by the devastating implosion of Mt. Gox back in 2014, which saw roughly seven percent of all Bitcoin in circulation vanish. At the time, they would have been worth an eye-watering $473 million. Other distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks added to the crisis of confidence.

The warning signs first flashed on Nov. 19, 2013, when prices halved in a single day — tumbling from $755 to $378. Although they rallied soon afterward, the end of the month signaled the start of a slump that wouldn’t end for more than a year.

Toward the end of the correction, in January 2015, prices slumped to a paltry $150 — and the ramifications have lingered for years. Overall, prices tumbled by 87 percent over the 411-day ordeal.

1. November 2011

A sharp fall in the early days of Bitcoin.

June 2011 had seen Bitcoin’s price hit about $32, falling precipitously to $2 over the course of five months — that’s a 94 percent drop. Many investors, unsure about what to expect in the crypto world, decided to cut their losses and get out of the Bitcoin game altogether — and these same people will now be kicking themselves that they didn’t ride out the correction, as they would have undoubtedly been multimillionaires by now.