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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Transaction Volumes “Very Low”

  • Bitcoin prices in range mode
  • Lightning Network in beta but drawing interest
  • Market participation is “very” low

The recovery of Bitcoin prices depends on adoption levels and favorable regulations. While we are bullish, buyers are free to ramp up once we see strong gains above $3,800. Before then, traders should take a wait and see approach.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Fundamentals

There has been much debate around Bitcoin. Often, the discussion revolves around the ability of Bitcoin to perform as billed. That is to act as a peer to peer electronic cash payment solution as stated by the founder, Satoshi. However, with time, it is increasingly becoming clear that the network won’t handle influx of users as we saw at the peaks of late 2017.

What remains after Segwit 2X is an off-chain scaling solution that is fast, secure but not trustless. The Lightning Network is off-chain, but proponents assert that Bitcoin will at the end of the day evolve into a settlement layer. A store of value platform with micro-payment executed in these scalable hubs called the Lightning Network whose use is picking up.

Candlestick Arrangements

Bitcoin

The promise of making off-chain payments doesn’t bode well with many, but that is the current state of affairs. It may even be the only thing that will spur involvement as merchants and individuals pay for day to day goods or services. That will surely prop prices which are down 2.8 percent in the last week but stable in the last few hours. Nevertheless, our optimism is founded by positive fundamentals.

In the short-term bulls may be in control. However, the path of least resistance will be southwards if buyers fail to support prices by today’s close. We reckon that any drop below last week’s low at $3,400-500 could trigger meltdown driving prices towards $3,200 and even $1,500 assuming bears step up.

On the reverse side, our medium-term trajectory will be correct if buyers soak bear pressure, helping catalyze a comeback that will see BTC reverse losses of Jan 28. Before then, we recommend taking a neutral position.

Technical Indicators

Jan 28 bear bar with 17k versus 12k in volumes—streams from BitFinex, guides our trade plan. With near flat market participation, gains above $3,600 and consequent confirmation or nullification of Jan 29-30 double bar bull reversal pattern depends on volume surges above 17k on the lower limit. Ideally, confirming bars should have high volumes above 20k. If instead there is a spike—above 20k, but prices drop below last week lows, we could see a sell-off towards $3,200 or lower.

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XRP Price Analysis: Visa Partners with Ripple Associate

  • XRP prices bullish. Targets at 40 cents
  • InstaReM join hands with Visa in the Fast-track Program
  • Transactional volumes shrink but could rise as buy momentum pick up

After SWIFT and Corda Settler announcement, InstaReM is now collaborating with Visa to enhance Fintech’s money transfer arrangement. Everything else constant, this is good news, and as XRP find support in lower time frames, it is likely that prices will inch higher towards 40 cents in coming days.

XRP Price Analysis

Fundamentals

Latest news is that InstaReM—a money service provider that mainly serves the Asian market and a Ripple partner has joined Visa’s Fast-track Program.

The objective of this program is to give Fintechs in Singapore better payment experience. That means speed, veracity, and efficiency which is lacking in legacy systems.

Together with Visa, the two companies will work toward building new solutions that will lead to fast, cheap and efficient money flow between countries.

To that end, Prajit Nanu, co-founder, and CEO of InstaReM said they would begin issuing out cards to new partners within the first month of joining the program down from nine months it used to before the partnership.

The head of Visa’s Digital Partnership in Asia Pacific Hamish Moline said:

“Even with all the digital forms of payment that exist today, transferring money internationally can still be a time-consuming, inefficient process. We are keen to work together to tackle an area of payments where there is still a lot of opportunities to bring innovation to the customer experience.”

Candlestick Arrangements

Ripple

XRP/USD price action points to bulls, and at stop rates, prices are stable. Because of our previous guidance, it is likely that XRP prices will expand over the weekend, confirm the bull bar of Jan 30. Subsequently, this shall set in motion the next wave that will pump prices back towards 34 cents and most importantly above 40 cents.

It is easy to see why. Notice that the past two bars do confine XRP prices inside Jan 30 high low. From an effort versus result point of view, this is bullish. Already, there is a long lower wick hinting of buy pressure in lower time frame meaning our trade conditions will likely be true in due course. Should prices rally above 34 cents, then risk-off traders can buy on dips with first targets at 40 cents and later Dec 2018 highs of 60 cents.

Technical Indicators

Technically, bulls have an upper hand as mentioned above.  But, from an effort versus results, approach, we first need to see gains above 32 cents confirming buy pressure of Jan 30.  Volumes should preferably exceed 47 million on the upper end and 15 million current averages on the lower end. Moves as such will lay the building blocks for 40 cents and 60 cents.

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Ripple Price Analysis: SWIFT Unlikely To Use XRP Even After Corda Trial

  • Ripple price cool off after yesterday’s eruption
  • SWIFT using XRP unlikely even after Corda test phase
  • Bull momentum building up as transactional volumes increase

After impressive gains, candlestick arrangement supports XRP bulls. To that end we expect bull momentum to build up as uncertainty around SWIFT using XRP after Corda test phase mills.

Ripple Price Analysis

Fundamentals

A level deeper and the excitement around the newfound, indirect partnership between Ripple and SWIFT through R3’s Corda Settler will subside. After a technical review, it is apparent that SWIFT GPI Link is, in fact, a direct competitor or Ripple’s xCurrent with end-to-end tracking capabilities.

While SBI Holdings and Yoshitaka Kitao may be pulling string–SBI Group has investments in both companies, Corda Settler, it appears, will only act like any other “Layer 2” router. A layer that will facilitate cross border payment between these two networks. That is despite their supporting XRP. After all, it can support any other cryptocurrency—even XLM—”Settler will be open to all forms of crypto and traditional assets.” Nothing is exclusive.

The Proof of Concept is in progress, but at the end of the day, both companies will be advancing their solutions. Everything else constant, a scenario where SWIFT GPI Link and SWIFT in particular use XRP is highly unlikely.

Candlestick Arrangements

On the charts and XRP prices are cooling off. Despite double-digit gains of Jan 30, there has been no follow through, and prices are overly stable. All the same, we are bullish. Even if there are counter-arguments around XRP, SWIFT, and Corda, candlestick arrangement points to bulls.

Like before, we shall trade in line with our previous XRP/USD trade plans. That means, before we recommend longs, there must be a full close above 34 cents. That’s not all. Confirmations that trigger risk-off long traders must have the support of high trade volumes. These volumes should preferably exceed recent averages of around 17 million.

Only then shall we suggest buys on dips. First modest targets will be at 40 cents and later Dec 2018 highs at 60 cents. Before then, our optimism stems from the double bar bull-reversal pattern printing after yesterday’s upswings.

Technical Indicators

Although it would have been ideal for yesterday’s volumes to exceed those of Jan 10—83 million, there is a shift of momentum. After a clear high-volume bull bar—49 million versus 17 million averages, there is a propensity for traders to “jump in.”  However, patience is needed. Prices must first rally above 34 cents confirming yesterday’s bull bar preferably with transactional volumes exceeding Jan 28’s 31 million.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC at $4,500 Not an Impossibility

  • Bitcoin Price up 1.8 percent, double-bar bull reversal pattern prints
  • Fidelity Investment custodial services set for March
  • Transactional volumes expected to rise in days ahead

Three months after announcing their interest in crypto, Fidelity Investment will set out and roll out Bitcoin custody in three months. No doubt this will easy crypto trading as BTC is usually the base pair as BTC/USD rise from $3,500.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Fundamentals

Here’s why Fidelity Investments delving into the cryptocurrency world is such a big deal. First, the Boston based firm has over $2.6 trillion in assets under management (AUM). With 27 million customers, it is a leading provider when it comes to 401(k) and 403(b) Retirement Savings Plans for individuals and non-profit organizations. It is for this reason why they are such a force.

They may pave the way for other traditional Wall Street corporations to invest and build cryptocurrency infrastructure. The Mutual Fund giant, through the Fidelity Digital Asset, is crypto centric and looking for ways of investing in crypto related products.

It is through their mandate that company insiders claim that the behemoth is planning on launching Bitcoin custodial services as early as March this year. Such a move will ease fears related to cryptocurrency trading allowing the asset to flourish.

Candlestick Arrangements

Bitcoin

It’s back to green, and at spot prices, BTC is up 1.8 percent. From candlestick arrangement, it looks likely for BTC bulls to pump prices, driving the most valuable coins above $3,800. As laid out in our BTC/USD trade plans, such moves will trigger longs, and the first targets will be at $4,500 and later $5,000.

Both goals are feasible, and none are far-fetched. Notice that $4,500 and $5,000 are Dec 2018 highs and while $4,500 is a significant Fibonacci retracement level, $5,000 is a round number. The reason for this is because there is a double bar bull reversal pattern off the main support level at $3,500.

All that is needed is a confirmation. Once that happens, we are likely to see prices expanding towards our targets.

Technical Indicators

Transactional volumes are still low, and even though we have a double bar bull reversal pattern off $3,500, averages are not even close to Jan 28. As above average volumes should pump aforementioned, rallies that will reverse losses of Jan 28. These volumes should exceed Jan 28’s—17k. However, the ground would be set for another wave of higher highs if they exceed Jan 20’s—20k or Jan 10’s—35k.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Upsides, Break above $3,800 on the Cards

  • Bitcoin price reject lower lows, stable
  • Exchanges in South Korea band together to protect investors and prevent illegalities
  • Transaction volumes low, prices trading in tight ranges

Despite yesterday’s declines, BTC is technically bullish. From candlestick arrangements, it is likely that in days ahead, buyers will flock in driving prices back above the $3,800 level triggering bulls. Demands as such will lift investors and confirm our BTC/USD trading assertions.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Fundamentals

South Korea, like Japan, embraces new technology. Blockchain is pivotal and spin-offs as cryptocurrencies are heavily regulated. At one point, back in 2017, there were rumors that the country’s regulators were following China’s route of banning cryptocurrencies and exchanges sending jitters across the sphere.

Luckily, that didn’t materialize. All the same, cryptocurrencies and exchanges remain under a tight grip of the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS). For example, all exchanges must register with the FSS and regulators don’t tolerate the idea of Bitcoin futures. Unfortunately, they can’t prevent hackers from infiltrating exchange’s systems. That’s despite all the guidelines and emphasis laid on security.

Because of this, CoinOne, Korbit, UpBit, and Bithumb are banding and introducing new KYC rules to prevent possibilities of hacking. Besides, these exchanges are looking at various ways to prevent the proliferation of illegal activities as voice phishing as well as build up of pyramid schemes. To this end, they will be registering all suspicious wallets.

Candlestick Arrangements

Bitcoin

BTC is steady in the last hour and day shedding 0.5 percent. Even with this, it is clear that BTC is finding support at lower levels. At this rate, sellers have an advantage. However, before there is panic liquidation, odds are Bitcoin bulls will jump in and drive prices as mentioned in our previous trade plans.

In the short-term–and being optimistic thanks to favorable candlestick arrangements, bulls have the upper hand. Ideally, what we would like to see are high volume bars reversing Jan 28 losses. When that prints, we shall have a double bar bull reversal pattern at around a fundamental Fibonacci retracement level of 78.6 percent.

From the chart, this level coincides with $3,500, the lower limit of our support zone. All the same, we recommend patience until after prices rally above $3,800 or Jan 14. In the meantime, we shall only take a wait-and-see approach until when prices surge above our minor bull trigger or cave in below $3,500 at the back of above average volumes. Any rally above $3,800 shall open doors from $4,500 and later $5,000.

Technical Indicators

Trading volumes are still low. After Jan 28 close, recorded volumes was 17k against 12k which is less than Jan 20 of 20k. Before we suggest longs, gains above $3,800 must be at the back of high market participation exceeding 20k and later 35k—those of Jan 10.